Won 121 of 216 matches in this window, holding tier A. Weighing the tiers on both sides of each of those matches, the model expected about 100 wins - so mental is +20.7 against what the tiers predicted.
mental wins more than tier A predicts, so the tier is too low. Luck alone explains a gap this big less than 1 time in 100.
MOVE UP: A → E
| Going in | Matches | Won | Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favoured | 62 | 52 | 10 |
| Underdog | 110 | 46 | 64 |
| Evenly matched | 44 | 23 | 21 |
Favoured means the model gave their team better than an even chance before the match. A record built on favoured games is not the same as one built against the odds, and the totals hide the difference.
Covering 2025-09-19 to 2026-09-18, 4580 matches.
Built 2026-09-19T07:59:07+00:00. Model fitted 2026-09-19 on 6394 matches of 3v3 history, 2024-12-04 to 2026-09-19.