Won 38 of 78 matches in this window, holding tier A. Weighing the tiers on both sides of each of those matches, the model expected about 46 wins - so ddd331 is -7.7 against what the tiers predicted.
ddd331 wins fewer than tier A predicts, so the tier is too high. Luck alone explains a gap this big less than 1 time in 20.
CONSIDER MOVING DOWN: A → B
| Going in | Matches | Won | Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favoured | 45 | 30 | 15 |
| Underdog | 16 | 3 | 13 |
| Evenly matched | 17 | 5 | 12 |
Favoured means the model gave their team better than an even chance before the match. A record built on favoured games is not the same as one built against the odds, and the totals hide the difference.
Covering 2025-09-19 to 2026-09-18, 4580 matches.
Built 2026-09-19T07:59:07+00:00. Model fitted 2026-09-19 on 6394 matches of 3v3 history, 2024-12-04 to 2026-09-19.